Wright, The Detroit News/caglecartoons.com

Thirty-eight days ago, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, in a conflagration that killed 11 workers and was the result of poor decision making after nearly two days of arguments as to how to proceed.

The result of replacing heavy-drilling fluids with light-weight sea water allowed methane gas to surge up the riser, expanding at an incredible rate and igniting the platform. Nineteen million gallons of spilled oil later, the gusher continues its unrelenting assault on what eventually will involve the entire Gulf coast from Louisiana to the southern tip of Florida.

From the White House to the wheel house, hopes ran high Thursday that BP had found a way to stop the deluge from below in, what they now call, an “environmental catastrophe.”

It was not to be.

Using a technique referred to as “top kill,” the oil men employed a 30,000-horsepower pump to force drilling mud one mile down and into the outlet orifice of the acutely named, “blow-out preventer.” If enough mud can be forced into the orifice to overcome by pressure the mass escaping, the problem can be stopped.

So far, top kill’s greatest effect, employing all of these metrics, has been to remove the top person at the U.S. Department of the Interior, Ken Salazar, and the top person at MMS, S. Elizabeth Birnbaum. Who knows how much longer BP will employ the top kill technique and how many top people will be forced to step down, or how much high-pressure mud it eventually will take to plug their orifices.

One thing is for certain: The high-pressure mud will continue to fly under great pressure and the oil plume will continue to grow.

The oil plume is the 800-pound gorilla, currently lurking out of sight in this saga. Just below the water surface, like a huge angry hippo bottom feeding in the Nile, this oil plume is now 22 miles long, 6 miles wide and 3,300 feet deep; and, it is moving, undulating ever-so slowly, on a collision course with an environmental holocaust.

Sand berms, skimming rigs and floating booms are pathetic attempts at sand-bagging a tsunami. Political and business leaders rival our most productive wind farms, bloviating about who is at fault. In the end, though, the American people will pick up the tab at the gas pump and American wildlife will once again find it increasingly difficult to share the planet with a voracious energy consumer.

Fill er up.

Bill Schorr/caglecartoons.com

You are a Gulf State emergency manager and you need to have a plan in place to protect your community in the event of a disaster. Your job is to do a hazard vulnerability analysis of your community and determine the perils and hazards that could become threats. You would then need to determine which hazards you are most vulnerable to and make an assessment of the community’s identifiable risk exposure.

As you assess your community’s assets, you may determine that a priority must be given to any asset that is a component of the two engines that drive your local economy: energy production and commercial fishing. An oil rig accident could not only affect the energy production engine, but a resultant oil spill could devastate the commercial fishing engine.

Threat is one issue; probability is another. Your resources are limited. You must plan for the events with the highest probability of occurrence in order to be an effective manager.

What is the likelihood of an oil spill happening in the Gulf of Mexico? Since 1967, there have been seven energy-related events affecting the Gulf states. In June 1979, an oil well blow-out dumped 140 million gallons into the Gulf. The resultant environmental impact was reported as LOW. In June 1990, there was a tanker explosion 60 miles off Galveston, Texas, which spilled 5.1 million gallons. In August 1993, three ships collided, causing the loss of 336,000 gallons of fuel oil into Tampa Bay. In November 2000, the oil tanker Westchester runs aground and dumps 567,000 gallons of fuel into the lower Mississippi River. During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, it was estimated that 7 million gallons of oil were lost due to the storm. In July 2008, a barge and tanker collide and release 250,000 gallons of fuel into the Mississippi River near New Orleans. In January 2010, a barge and tanker collide, spilling 175,000 gallons of oil near Port Arthur, Texas.

In the past 43 years, there only has been one major oil rig accident in the Gulf that involved a significant oil spill. There was no reported environmental impact from the spill. Barge and tanker collisions resulting in spills have a much higher probability of occurring, as they happen close to shore.

So, with a very low probability of occurrence, but a potentially devastating financial impact, you decide to do an analysis of which drilling operations have the highest risk of a blow-out and spill. The numbers point to deep-water drilling. You decide to base your analysis on a well-run operation. You choose the Deepwater Horizon, a high-tech, deep-water rig with only one minor safety infraction since 2005. Through investigation, you determine that the Department of the Interior oversees a federal agency called the Minerals Management Service (MMS), which regulates the oil drilling industry and, oddly enough, receives billions of dollars in oil-generated royalties from the industry it regulates.

Through more intense investigative work, it is determined that what makes deep-water drilling more risky is the proximity of methane gas when the seabed is disturbed through drilling or through natural geologic occurrences. As the methane rises and comes in contact with extremely cold sea water, the molecules of compressed methane are captured in the molecular structure of the slushy, near-frozen sea water at great depth. These captured molecules of methane in sea slush are called hydrates. If hydrates become heated through drilling, or rising oil in the riser pipe, or the heat generated from curing concrete, which is used to stabilize the gap between the riser pipe and the bore hole, this heat allows the methane molecules to escape their slushy cage and rise.

As the methane molecules rise, they expand. Each molecule can expand as it rises to a ratio of 1:180. This expanding methane bubble can rise slowly or explosively fast, depending on what it is pushing ahead of it in the riser pipe. If anything ignites the methane, an explosion happens. To prevent an explosion, each rig has a Blow Out Prevention system (BOP), which involves a cut-off valve to stop the continuing rise of methane. If the BOP fails and the bubble ignites, there is an unending supply of fuel that will eventually incinerate the rig. If the rig collapses, the riser pipe will break, resulting in a spill. The MMS did not require the Deepwater Horizon to have a plan in place for this type of disaster scenario.

As an emergency manager, you have no control over the best practices of the drilling companies, nor can you enforce inspection schedules. The probability of an oil spill occurring due to rig failure is low. Mitigatory strategies, should an oil spill happen, would be to use volunteers to clear away naturally occurring beach debris that might hamper oil clean-up and to be able to procure enough oil containment booms to stretch across the lengths of exposed beaches and wetlands.

Now, as agencies race to siphon the April 20 incident in the Gulf, remember: It’s better to focus on a high probability of occurrence with advanced warning capability than a low-probability event you have no control over.

Jeff Cagle/For The Klaxon.com

The Music City has fallen flat—into water.

Nashville still is drenched a week after torrential storms dropped more than 20 inches of rain over two-thirds of the state. The damage to the Nashville area is estimated at $1.5 billion as of Friday. The 28 lives lost are not recoverable. And life as it was, may not be either.

But, what is recoverable? How does one mitigate this kind of situation when a storm drops more rain than has ever been recorded for a single storm in the history of the state—one that the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is calling a “1,000-year flood?” A start is with history.

Nashville has experienced major floods in 1927 and 1975. There also was significant flooding in 1937, 1977, 1984 and 1991. As such, flooding is not a new issue for this city.

Yet, in the past 20 years—largely due to the popularity of country music and Nashville’s identity as the capital of that particular culture—an economic boom in tourism has been the catalyst for major waterfront development and extensive building in low-lying areas.

Unfortunately, flood mitigation was an additional expense that was ignored by city planners and developers.

With federal disaster funding being made available, one would hope that mitigatory strategies would be a priority. The reality, though, is that they seldom are.

Flood victims will seal their foundations, buy sump pumps and raise their boilers and water heaters onto elevated platforms—all good measures, but a drop in the bucket when 20 inches of rain over 48 hours causes barely trickling rills to roar down mountainsides like aquatic avalanches that cause rivers to jump their banks and drown people as they sit bumper-to-bumper on the interstate.

“Megafloods” come every 30 to 50 years in this area. In the last 20 years, annual rainfall has been increasing in the Tennessee region. Fifteen to 20 inches of rain is unmanageable, despite the best efforts of the TVA.

If people and businesses choose to live in floodplains, their only recourse is National Flood Insurance. A better bet would be a 10-foot high, first story designed for submersion, or move to higher ground. Human nature, however, is a counterintuitive bet.

We bipeds love to live near water. The early Cherokees who first inhabited the area now known as Nashville lived on these same river banks, but when heavy rains came, they moved their settlements uphill.

Common sense is apparently all too uncommon.

Parker, Florida Today/caglecartoons.com

The explosion on the BP oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico April 20 has left 11 dead. Five thousand feet below the site where the rig eventually sank, the outlet vent is gushing 210,000 gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

That oil hit the Mississippi Delta region Friday and certainly will cause the largest environmental catastrophe in history to the United States.

BP is spending $6 million per day on the cleanup effort and has lost $20 billion in market value in the last 10 days. They’ve not been able to cap the underwater gusher. They are hoping to fabricate a large dome to place on the ocean floor to contain the oil flow and pump more than 5,000 barrels per day to container ships. It will be four to eight weeks before the dome is manufactured. This means 30 to 60 more days at 210,000 gallons per day. The oil slick already covers a 700 square-mile area.

We must remember that first, this is not a Federal Emergency Management Agency gig. The Environmental Protection Agency actually oversees the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan, working in partnership with the U.S. Coast Guard. The EPA appoints an OSC (On Scene Coordinator) who, according to Part 300 of the above mentioned plan:

May allow the responsible party to voluntarily and promptly perform removal actions, provided the OSC determines such actions will ensure an effective and immediate removal of the discharge or mitigation or prevention of a substantial threat of a discharge.

If the discharge results in a substantial threat to the public health or welfare of the United States (including, but not limited to fish, shellfish, wildlife, other natural resources, and the public and private beaches and shorelines of the United States), the OSC must direct all response efforts. The OSC should declare as expeditiously as practicable to spill response participants that the federal government will direct the response. The OSC may act without regard to any other provision of the law governing contracting procedures or employment of personnel by the federal government in removing or arranging for the removal of such discharge.

So, basically, the OSC is up to their necks in a two-step plan: (1) Containment (2) Recovery of the oil.

The containment horse already is out of the barn. Miles of recovery booms have been rendered ineffective due to windy and choppy weather conditions. The booms only can contain in calm waters. Skimmers also are used, but are not intended for this kind of mass.

Releasing chemicals under the spill and dropping absorbents and adsorbents from planes may help to break up the oil, but the reality is all too clear: The wind is pushing the oil to the coasts of the Gulf States faster than the chemicals can disperse it.

Recovering the oil is a pipe dream. At best, only 10 to 14 percent of the oil gets recovered. Of the 11 million gallons spilled by the Exxon Valdez, only 8 percent was recovered. A certain amount of it will evaporate, spread out or sink to the bottom to become this huge, lifeless glob below the waves. The bulk of the oil will roll with the waves until it hits shore and adheres to everything it touches. Unfortunately, the oil from this gusher is a heavy crude that will not dissipate quickly.

The EPA will be facing a multi-billion dollar coastline cleanup operation that will require tens of thousands of volunteers using low-technology tools from Texas to Florida over a period of years.

The sad fact is that the existing contingency plan did not account for an oil spill that would continue to add more oil to the existing emergency on a daily basis. New technologies are needed for oil capture and containment or all contigency plans are bureaucratic fairy tales.

In the meantime, I’d stock up on shrimp.

Swine flu allegedly killed more than 12,000 people in the U.S. and infected another 60 million Americans. The H1N1 virus was serious (and still is). But the hysteria around the illness is a lesson learned that the world isn’t ready for a pandemic.

In New York City, where a majority of the H1N1 cases bloomed, there became mass hysteria with school closings, triages and vaccine campaigns that used any available city worker as a mule to escort school children to the nurse for a shot. Not to mention the infuriated parents, the nervous elderly and the worried snifflers.

Other cities across the nation and around the globe felt similar pressure from residents as the virus mutated and continued to get worse.

There’s no question that the initiatives taken by organizations to help combat swine flu showed their ability to respond; however, if a virus 10 times as powerful were to evolve, it could mean devastation.

The Associated Press reports that the H1N1 virus will force officials to think of “lessons learned,” such as “cover your cough,” pandemic expectations, vaccination disappointments (as the nation’s system seems “flawed”) and pregnant women vulnerabilities and initiatives.

A public health emergency rests at the local level with little help from the federal government. The local officials attempted to ease concerns with the above initiatives, but we just didn’t listen. Instead, half the world went into a panic attack that causes more harm than good in a crisis.

Granted, some of the blame does fall on governmets who, at times, may have over exaggerated the virus. But cities and towns never had seen or even expected the virus and some just thought of it as a severe flu (making people more nervous). Though the latter is what it now is being called, it should be a wake-up call for governments to adapt these lessons learned and ready. A more dedicated campaign that focuses on education of the masses, while at the same time trying not to overhype the problem or to force vaccinations, is one possible route. Creating an emergency plan that incorporates the continuity of operations for all local necessities is another.

History shows that a pandemic occurs once every 100 or so years. Let’s hope officials can deal with the surge, because it would seem this time, they lucked out.

For more information on pandemics and pandemic planning, click here.

The western province of China is mountainous and rural, near the Tibetan border. Help will be a long time coming and logistically very difficult to coordinate. To further complicate matters, there is very little infrastructure and the temperature in the evening hovers near zero.

In the town of Jiegu, near the epicenter of the quake, 85 percent of the buildings were flattened. There are no emergency plans for the area, practically no heavy equipment to assist with search and rescue, and the first responders are local civilians awaiting poorly trained and underfed army troops.

Since the first of the year, there have been a number of significant earthquakes that have attracted the world’s attention:

Jan. 4, Haiti, 7.0

Feb. 27, Chile, 8.8

March 16, Greater Los Angeles, 4.4

April 4, Mexico, 7.2

April 6, Northern Sumatra, 7.7

April 11, Spain, 6.1

April 11, Solomon Islands, 6.8

April 13, China, 6.9

The devastation caused by earthquakes can be staggering. The January quake in Haiti killed at least 200,000 and injured more than 100,000 people, as well as decimated what little infrastructure existed. It will be decades before the country is restored.

On the positive side, though, all of this high-optics earthquake activity has raised interest and awareness regarding appropriate planning, response, recovery and mitigation strategies that can be employed from the governmental level to the individual level.

Chile certainly is a shining example of how to proactively prepare for the worst and survive well in an area of seismic activity.

That country survived a devastating quake of 8.8 magnitude with 500,000 houses destroyed and only 700 people killed. This still is too many lives to lose, but it is a testament to the mitigatory practices of Chilean officials for the past 20 years.

By comparison, the loss of life in Haiti far exceeded that limit. As it looks the same will be in China. What we’re seeing around the globe with natural disasters is that no planning equals high mortality.

It’s understandable that some areas might not have plans because of money or government structure, but we must realize then what the end result will entail.

Individuals can help prepare themselves and their community for such a disaster, as with most emergencies, people are on their own (in the U.S., for at least the first 72 hours).

We might not be able to stop earthquakes, but through awareness and proper planning, we can increase survivability.

Below are tips from the Federal Emergency Management Agency: “What to Do During an Earthquake.”

Stay as safe as possible during an earthquake. Be aware that some earthquakes are actually foreshocks and a larger earthquake might occur. Minimize your movements to a few steps to a nearby safe place and if you are indoors, stay there until the shaking has stopped and you are sure exiting is safe.

If indoors

DROP to the ground; take COVER by getting under a sturdy table or other piece of furniture; and HOLD ON until the shaking stops. If there isn’t a table or desk near you, cover your face and head with your arms and crouch in an inside corner of the building.

Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and walls, and anything that could fall, such as lighting fixtures or furniture.

Stay in bed if you are there when the earthquake strikes. Hold on and protect your head with a pillow, unless you are under a heavy light fixture that could fall. In that case, move to the nearest safe place.

Use a doorway for shelter only if it is in close proximity to you and if you know it is a strongly supported, load bearing doorway.

Stay inside until the shaking stops and it is safe to go outside. Research has shown that most injuries occur when people inside buildings attempt to move to a different location inside the building or try to leave.

Be aware that the electricity may go out or the sprinkler systems or fire alarms may turn on.

DO NOT use the elevators.

If outdoors

Stay there.

Move away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires.

Once in the open, stay there until the shaking stops. The greatest danger exists directly outside buildings, at exits and alongside exterior walls. Many of the 120 fatalities from the 1933 Long Beach earthquake occurred when people ran outside of buildings only to be killed by falling debris from collapsing walls. Ground movement during an earthquake is seldom the direct cause of death or injury. Most earthquake-related casualties result from collapsing walls, flying glass, and falling objects.

If in a moving vehicle

Stop as quickly as safety permits and stay in the vehicle. Avoid stopping near or under buildings, trees, overpasses, and utility wires.

Proceed cautiously once the earthquake has stopped. Avoid roads, bridges, or ramps that might have been damaged by the earthquake.

If trapped under debris

Do not light a match.

Do not move about or kick up dust.

Cover your mouth with a handkerchief or clothing.

Tap on a pipe or wall so rescuers can locate you. Use a whistle if one is available. Shout only as a last resort. Shouting can cause you to inhale dangerous amounts of dust.

Roosewelt Pinheiro/ABr

Rio de Janeiro still is reeling from 11 inches of rain that paralyzed the city Monday and Tuesday. The death toll was estimated around 160 until another mudslide struck Thursday and destroyed the ravela of Morro Bumba in Niteroi, burying 60 houses and at least 200 people.

This will push the death toll between 350 to 400.

Rio has 1,000 ravelas, many of which are built on hillsides, at the base of hillsides and on city dumps that provide a toxic and unstable base for construction. The city also experiences torrential rain on a seasonal basis and mudslides are not an unfamiliar occurrence.

The United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) announced Thursday that they will provide a $704,970 technical assistance grant for Rio to support the establishment of an emergency operations center (EOC). This is meant to provide Rio with the critical infrastructure needed to coordinate emergency services during disasters. The hope is that the Rio de Janeiro State Secretariat for Civil Defense will be able to develop an integrated emergency management system and a strategic implementation plan.

This is a great move by the USTDA, which provides well-thought-out assistance globally to improve disaster response.

The best EOC in the world, however, will have little effect on disaster mortality in Rio if the city’s leaders do not institute basic planning and mitigation strategies for a city of more than 11 million people that also has a sewage system with large sections that date back to the late 1700s, a staggering murder rate and millions of people living in sub-standard housing that rivals Haiti in terms of vulnerability to the elements.

The second largest city in Brazil—and the third largest metropolitan area in South America—cannot afford to continue to turn a blind eye to the plight of its poor.

In addition, it is not enough for the state governor to ask the people to pray for the rain to stop. Instead, prayers for proactive leadership, enforced building codes, evacuation of vulnerable populations during periods of heavy rain, better coordination of first responders and appropriate excavation equipment, might bring a better result.

The first city in South America to host the Olympic Games (in 2016) better raise its game.

After all, the world is watching.

This event, which has been monitored for the past week when seismic activity began to be noted 75 miles east of Reykjavik and approximately six miles below ground, has proven to be a microcosm of excellent emergency management procedures.

The Icelandic Civil Protection Department (ICPD) has employed the “Three Cs” of  emergency management—communication, cooperation and coordination—with precision and forethought.

The University of Iceland’s Institute of Earth Science has been communicating with the ICPD as seismic activity has increased over the past week. The ICPD had issued advanced warnings to residents in the immediate area and kept the government involved.

When a half-mile-long fissure opened early Sunday morning and ash began spewing two miles into the atmosphere, the government declared a state of emergency and implemented the evacuation plan to remove 600 people from the perimeter of danger surrounding the volcano. As part of the plan, air traffic temporarily was cancelled due to the ash cloud.

Coordination between all governing bodies has been—so far—flawless and the cooperation of evacuees has made this appear more like an exercise than an actual event.

As a result, the fear gripped by headlines should ease worries more than provoke anxiety.

It’s hopeful that other governments would follow Iceland’s procedures as a case study to mitigate potential future, similar problems.

Michael Rieger/FEMA

If you’re planning on calling the town about a neighbor who is building an ark in his backyard, wait just a second. The National Weather Service reported their spring 2010 forecast: floods for one-third of the United States.

The service reported several factors for the flooding, a “better-better-than average” snow fall, cold temperatures and a quick spring thawing have created the formula for disaster.

The nation’s annual Flood Safety Awareness Week is off to an ominous start. Parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa are at the most risk with river water already endangering a number of communities.

As towns begin to prepare the sandbags, emergency managers must take into consideration what damage has been done recently to existing structural mitigation efforts. Structural efforts such as levies, walls and dikes were designed to be long-term solutions but may have taken a severe pounding from winter storms and may have to be attended to first.

When undertaking such a problem, however, several impediments exist to the mitigation strategy. Local governments have to contend with a lack of cash to properly maintain their structural controls in the biggest downturn since the Great Depression, which has left a gaping hole in efforts. In addition to the financial restrictions, the denial of the recognition of hazards such as flooding, reigns supreme among the private sector.

Hazard identification, hazard mapping, land-use planning and design applications are all part of the mitigation process, but are difficult to implement because much of the land is privately owned. Insurance or the transfer of risk, but the cost has become very expensive for homeowners living on or near the water. The two factors that influence insurance rates the most—the frequency and the cost of each claim—spiked with Hurricane Katrina, leaving insurance companies wary of writing new policies.

Emergency managers are tasked with the external and internal adversaries. The external, the hazard (in this case floods) and the internal (financial and community), play an integral part on how the community will optimize and manage risks. The community has to understand that a hazard never can be eliminated, but can be reduced through proper mitigation efforts.

Olle Johansson, Sweden/caglecartoons.com

Chile is in shambles. Now, the affluent, well-educated and prepared South American nation will enter the recovery phase—one that may soon be filled with volunteers. But are they needed?

Initial reports state the quake killed more than 700 people and displaced another 2 million.

There’s no question that this is a severe blow for the Ring of Fire, but what’s interesting is, despite the aftershocks and the the destruction, Chile is in a much different state than Haiti after its Jan. 12 quake that left 200,000 dead.

There will be some periods of “chaos” with reports already stating supermarkets are overwhelmed with those trying (or even looting, which some consider a disaster myth) to get food and hospitals evacuating patients because of instability.

The country has asked for help and international aid organizations are answering the call.

However, with the current scene just evolving in Chile and disaster organizations already pouring into Haiti, it will be a difficult task to balance the capacity of volunteer organizations without stretching them thin.

Kate Conradt, spokeswoman for Save the Children, a Connecticut-based nonprofit, told The Wall Street Journal that her company would be willing to help in Chile, but also faces the response in Haiti.

“We do have the capacity, but, yes, it does complicate it that we have a major response going on in Haiti,” she told the newspaper.

It’s guaranteed that international aid networks such as Save the Children, the American Red Cross and the Salvation Army can juggle multiple disasters at once, but the problem could be the influx of volunteers.

Following the quake in Haiti, the destruction was unbearable and mainstream for weeks, resulting in large U.S. cities, some states and the federal government to jump quickly in taking control of the situation. It also meant every able-bodied individual was ready to board a plane to Hispaniola.

This is not the same in Chile. By Sunday, news of flooding in France took front seat as Chile became a chilly aftermath—only to heat back up again Monday with news of the missing.

This doesn’t mean that the country won’t get volunteers. Far from it. It means there could be soon enough—like Haiti—too much response with nothing for them to do.

Is there a way around telling volunteers, “Thanks, but we got it covered?” That’s a deadly slope. And not quite accurate, either.

Those willing to help are genuinely good-hearted, but they’re usually untrained, unprepared and take on an “I must help” mentality that usually acts as a block more than anything else.

Some organizations are beginning collections to send money to the disaster-striken nation. This arguably is the best way to volunteer, but some just won’t agree. And though that’s understandable, volunteers must realize that victims in time of disaster need those who are trained and who can properly help.

Chile has not reached out for volunteers just yet. And, with the country’s already-prepared national emergency office, that time may not come.

Nonetheless, if it does, don’t expect Chile to have a warm reception.

Below is a list of some international aid organizations offering help to Chile.

Red Cross: Pledge to Chile

Salvation Army: Donations

Save the Children

Google Crisis Response: Donations to UNICEF and Direct Relief International