Future unpredictable for H1N1 virus (swine flu)

By Joshua Wilwohl / josh@theklaxon.com / 12.22.2009

Updated on: 01.17.10 at 11:43 am

The flu’s on the decline. At least that’s the latest news from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But, now that the worldwide pandemic seems to resonate with individuals that it’s not a deadly virus that will wipe the planet clean, the question is—what’s next?

People around the world still line streets, crowd hospitals and buy Purell as if a glob of instant-cleanse will save them from what now seems to be a virus that’s mildly more virulent than the flu.

In early November, The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a story that revealed a massive spike in the number of sick this past fall actually was a severe case of the common cold.

“..The finding may send an important message to parents who (despite doctors’ recommendations) are questioning the need to immunize their children against swine flu because they seemed to have already had the disease,” Susan Coffin, director of infection prevention and control at Children’s Hospital, told the Inquirer.

Now, this is not a rant against the H1N1 virus (far from it)—it does exist and people have died from the swine flu—but we must take into realization the hype that wasn’t, while also preparing for the next few months.

When the virus first made its appearance in late April, it caught the world by storm and people immediately began to stock their supply cabinets with masks, sanitizing supplies and every other necessity they read on blogs.

As the virus progressed and the World Health Organization started to raise the alert level, the subject became more of a concern as fatalities rose and the sick became hospitalized.

Six months passed and vaccines began to roll out, and points of distributions (PODs) popped up in cities around the globe.

Countries including Romania, Japan and Mexico also began quarantining hoards of individuals—taking no chances (and in some cases, it’s thankful they did).

Now, nine months later, a trickle effect has started.

Emergency managers are beginning to say (not publicly yet), “People are less worried about the flu.”

Essentially, a sense of ease is beginning in what is known as the second wave of a pandemic.

Does this mean people will stop buying sanitation devices or go back to their routine ways? Hardly.

What it does show, though, is an unexpected future—one that the WHO fears so much that it will not lower the pandemic alert level just yet.

Part of this could be because of bumps along the way, including the recent recall of 4.7 million doses of the vaccine (because it’s allegedly not potent enough), and the findings of the virus in more animals (the most recent a dog in New York).

It’s also important to note that flu season only is halfway over—despite the declines.

Anne Schuchat, head of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, informed reporters on a conference call that, “This is the time to act,” she said, according to Bloomberg News. “Just because people are taking time off for the holidays doesn’t mean this virus will.”

And in an unknown future, she’s probably right.

The world spent more than half a year drilled with H1N1 information—so much so when people now see literature on the virus, it makes them shun.

But this is good. As it means—in the end—people are listening. They are heeding advice to stay home, wash hands, sneeze in the shoulder and rest—even if it’s nothing more than a cold.